What Are Bonds Trying To Tell Us (Part 2)?

Back on August 14th I wrote a post about bonds which asked the question about what the TLT charts were trying to tell us  (click here) … the short version of that post was that the monthly and weekly charts were suggesting that bonds were heading higher, but that the daily chart was suggesting that price was in a condition of resistance and that the bigger time frame charts may actually fail in their attempt to break higher.

With the FOMC rate decision in the books, I thought it was time to look at bonds once again … Continue reading

What If …

What If ….

What if the FOMC was right in not raising interest rates, and we were, in fact, in a goldilocks scenario where the US economy was forever going to be range bound between 1.5% and 2% annual growth rate which allowed the US Central Bank to keep interest rates at 25bps forever …

What if this “stock nirvana” allowed Companies to borrow unlimited amounts of money from institutions  and retail clients who were now clamouring over each other for the ability to lock in 2.34% annual coupons for the next 30 years for their hard earned dollars.  Wouldn’t these Companies deserve 20x (or higher) EPS multiples on their mid-single digit growth earnings?

As the saying goes … “If if’s and buts were candy and nuts, we would all have a Merry Christmas”.  The world may not unfold going forward as it appears to be doing right here. Continue reading

Intra-Day Entries …

I was going back and forth this morning with a trader I often exchange emails with and I mentioned to him about an intra-day long trade I was trying to enter.  It was on DIS, which I had written a blog post about earlier in the day (click here).  I told him the levels for my limit order entry, the stop I was using and the fact that I was going to possibly keep it overnight into Friday, but that I would not be taking it over the weekend.

I was never filled on that order but my trader friend came back to me with some questions on the trade – question about why the level here etc.  I thought I would just post my intra-day chart and make a couple of quick notes on my thoughts so everyone could see how I look to enter intra-day. Continue reading

Lower Risk Longs …

Everything is great now that the Fed has reassured us that the economy is just meh!!!  The next real big calendar event is the 3rd quarter earnings releases, which start in earnest during after the second week of October.  By then we will have a couple US presidential debates behind us and some certainty on who is likely to win the Presidential election.

So where can investors look to get long? … I’m not talking about the momo names which are great beta trades when the market is moving higher.  I’m asking more about large cap, liquid/well-known names that are not breaking to new highs (and therefore at risk for a near-term pull-back).

The name that I have been watching for the last little while is DIS … Continue reading

This Is The Week … Finally!!!

This upcoming week, investors are finally going to get some answers … the Bank of Japan is giving a monetary policy statement including a press conference (overnight Tuesday/early Wednesday) and of course, Janet Yellen and the rest of the US FOMC is having a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday/Wednesday (announcement at 2pm eastern on Wednesday followed by a 2:30pm press conference).

How do the charts look going into those important meetings? Continue reading

Right at an Important Level …

The ES broke the bigger broadening pattern that I was following yesterday and has been hugging the lower parallel line of the new minor uptrend’s  broadening pattern …

ES Futures Contract – 5000 Tick

es_september-15-2016_5000-tick_01

Price has pushed right into the SLOT resistance zone’s 61.8% level and the trend strength histogram has just pushed into the extreme warning zone … if the bigger pattern is still lower, then this would be a perfect spot for the market to stop going higher.  Head’s up here to see what happens …

Cheers … Leaf_West