TSLA Update …

TSLA was probably the biggest contributing stock name to my 2016 P&L … I nailed it pretty well with a couple of calls using broadening patterns.  Here is a chart I posted back in August shortly after I had gone short …

TSLA Weekly Chart (as posted on August 29th)

That lower parallel line did in fact act as support and I have been following along as price squeezed higher.  Today, price basically touched that median line once again.

TSLA – Weekly Chart

TSLA – Monthly Chart

Not only has price pushed up to the important median line in the weekly chart’s broadening pattern, price has pushed right up to the top of the monthly trading range that has developed since 2014.  Depending where you want to consider the important levels, TSLA is pushing into levels that have never seen a closing monthly candle.

TSLA has been a great intra-day trader but I am thinking that Elon Musk and the greedy Wall Street bankers are going to be coming to the market with another equity offering – typically they wait until after a monthly OpEx is completed so I would think that we will see a public issue before the end of February.

The reaction to the raising of capital could mark a high for the stock as the squeeze pressure is lessened with the increased available float, but the Wall Street bankers are sure to put the name on their recommended lists and try and drive the price higher so they can complete the issue’s greenshoe.

Bottom Line – I think the squeeze is almost over in TSLA here, and I am expecting an equity offering in late February.  The stock will be in a position to short once again in that May-August time period.  Until then, take advantage of intra-day trading and enjoy the ride.


NFLX Update …

My chart software has color candles to give me a visual snapshot of the trend strength in price.  Dark blue candles along with pink divergence dots are painted when the trend strength reaches an extreme level (historically a level that cannot be maintained) – all of this is explained in more detail in PDFs located under the Education Tab on my blog site.

The reason I am mentioning this here is that NFLX’s daily chart today painted the first pink divergence dot (painted when the trend strength makes a lower high compared to the prior bar).  Here are the charts … Continue reading

Are We at The Top of Wave 1 for GDX?

Gold and gold miners are always on my trading radar … I have traded them a bit so far in 2017 but coming into today I had no position.  Today when I tried to look at and update where I thought price was in its wave structure, I decided that there was a good chance that we will be making a pivot high here in GDX today or tomorrow.  I started a position in DUST today to begin focusing on that next move in GDX … here is what I am seeing. Continue reading

AAPL, FB & AMZN Update …

With AMZN’s report tonight, we have the big tech horsemen out of the way in terms of corporate profit reports … AAPL’s report was better than the low market expectations, FB’s met expectations but those were ridiculously high, and finally, AMZN today sort of underdelivered for a stock that wanted reasons to keep heading to $1000.

Here is how the charts look …

AAPL – Weekly Chart

AAPL has made a push out of the broadening pattern off of its recent pivot lows.  I would expect AAPL to hold above the upper parallel line of this pattern going forward here in early 2017.  Note that a couple of the weekly chart indicators are currently overbought and some type of consolidation at around that upper parallel line makes sense.

If you look at the large range bar that I have marked with the number 1, you can see that it took several weeks after that large push higher to consolidate that move.  I’m just saying that break-out moves often have to rest after the initial enthusiasm, so if AAPL were to spend some time at just under the all-time high of $134.54, that would make perfect sense to me.

FB – Weekly Chart

FaceBook is a widely owned stock, and some traders think that their growth story is fully discounted in the current share price … I think the weekly chart shows that the risk of buying FB here at current levels, clearly outweigh the potential short-term rewards.

A possible shooting star weekly candle is forming here this week that had poked up into new all-time highs, and I would think that price will be under pressure for the next several weeks.  Any bounce in the market and /or FB’s price,  will likely shake out some large institutional sellers who may think that it may be wise to take some profits on this name here in early 2017.

AMZN – Weekly Chart

AMZN’s weekly chart looks a bit like FB’s in that it was starting to show some negative divergences … AMZN looks like it is going to push down to the lower parallel line of the broadening pattern – that level is at about $780 – $790.

Back in late 2015/early 2016, AMZN pulled back from having made a new all-time high into a correction that lasted about 6 weeks, chopped off about $200 from its share price which represented about 29% of the then current price.  These large-cap market leaders are well-owned and if a couple of big accounts want out, the selling pressure will sure to be painful.

AMZN – Daily Chart

Cheers … Leaf_West


Update of Francisco’s Road Map …

Francisco and I disagreed yesterday morning about the short-term direction of the market … I stated that the market had JUST started to squeeze higher and he stated that the market was going to correct lower into a “wave 4” low.  Here are his most recent charts for the S&P 500 Index.

S&P 500 Index – 60 Minute Chart

S&P 500 Index – 5 Minute Chart

I still disagree with his short-term forecast for a pull-back to the 2252 level … I just don’t see how with a good start to earnings season, the almost always positive monthly calendar flip coming next week, and with Donald Trump kicking ass and taking names, how the market can pull-back that much after consolidating for about a month and just now beginning to squeeze higher.

If you look at my post from yesterday (click here), you will see however, that our end target for this move in the S&P 500 ends in a similar area.  My target for the end to the “3-wave” weekly price structure is 2312 – 2342, versus the Francisco’s target of 2349.

Cheers … Leaf_West

The Beginning … or the Beginning of the End??

Are we about to start a new industrial/manufacturing revolution that will mark the beginning of a new bull market in stocks?  Or are we nearing the end of an important price wave structure?  I continue to believe that we are pushing up into an important top on the weekly chart, and with the current push out of the last month of consolidation, we could be getting very close to an important pivot high. Continue reading