Possible Reversal Pivots …

This post is a follow-up discussion that I just posted on AMZN … Friday’s daily candle made a new 5 candle low and it closed above the prior candle’s low.  I have scans that search out for these types of situations (for both possible reversals higher and lower).  Since AMZN has made a possible pivot low candle, I will be stalking it into next week (see the blog posting for more detail on that trade setup – click here).

I thought I should discuss briefly my reversal pivot scans … like I said I have a scan that searches for stocks/ETFs that are making possible pivot reversals on the daily/weekly and monthly charts – I will just focus on the daily time frame for this posting however. Continue reading

AMZN Review …

Large tech stocks have been clear laggards since the “Trump” infrastructure rotation began last month.  Those large cap tech names were all crowded trades so there have been some good pullbacks in some of my favorite trading names.  That always a good time to be looking for possible entries to swing/positional long trades.

I prefer to enter swing trades that are confirmed by my weekly/monthly charts, and to me, AMZN does not have a long swing set-up here.  The smaller time frame charts do, however, point to a possible start to a positional long trade … by that I mean I am looking at a possible 3-10 day long trade.  Let me show you what I am watching on the charts. Continue reading

“It’s Ok Janet … I Got It From Here”

Obviously, the above blog post title is what the Donald said to Janet Yellen when she phoned to wish him congratulations the day after the US Presidential election … at least that must be what stock and bond investors thought the Donald must have said based on the rally in stocks and the sell-off in bonds since that date.

With a big part of those “adjustments” behind us now, my mind flickers to the old Clint Eastwood quote from the Dirty Harry movie … “‘You’ve got to ask yourself one question. Do I feel lucky?  Well, do ya, punk?”

I bring this up because tomorrow is the December non-farm payroll number … that is the last jobs number the FOMC will see before it meets in less than 2 weeks to decide on US interest rates.  Yesterday’s beige book is the November economic report that will be used in that meeting as well – overall the beige book was kind of “meh” … nothing really great to report, and more of a focus really on the strong US$ and the headwinds that a strong currency was making for US exporters.

The market odds of the FOMC raising rates is now at 100% and the 30-year US Treasury yield is about 100bps above where it was back at the end of July.  Janet has to raise rates right?  The Donald is going to crank the economy up to between 3% and 4% next year and that is going to get the Fed behind the curve if they wait for the economy to begin overheating.

Here is a look at your basic two options as investors … you can either buy bonds after a large pull-back, or you can buy deep cyclical stocks that are going to boom with the help of the new administration. Continue reading

Gold at Weekly Support …

Gold and the gold miners are sectors/asset classes that I often trade, so I keep a close eye on them. Two of my last reviews can be found at the following URL links …

October 12th … Is the Next Trade in Gold Higher?

August 14th … Is the Next Trade in Gold Lower?

To make a long story short, I’ve made some pretty good trades in the sector during 2016.  I am looking at gold sitting here right in major weekly SLOT support and thinking it might be time to start hawking gold and the NUGT ETF once again.

Gold Futures (GC) – Weekly & Daily Charts

gc_november-28-2016_week-daily_01

 Price has made an emotional push down into the SLOT and right into that all important 61.8% level.  There is no real sign of a bottom being made yet, but with year-end just ahead of us, the FOMC meeting etc etc, we could be setting up some type of bottom over the next 4-5 weeks.

A rate increase by the FOMC on December 14th might cause a melt-up in the US$ (pivot high??) which could cause some more of those multi-billion dollar overnight futures flushes in gold.  At some point, gold will make for a good long trade, and i plan to keep my eye on it.

Cheers … Leaf_West

Retailing Sector Update …

I last updated the retail sector back on October 12th (click here) … back then traders on CNBC were calling for the end of the retailers, but my premise was that we were going to get a bounce to complete a “3-Push” Pattern and possibly an even bigger bear flag pattern.  Here is the main chart from that earlier post …

S&P 500 Retailing Sector ETF (XRT) – Weekly & Daily Charts (October 12, 2016)

xrt_october-12-2016_week-daily_01

Here is the updated charts for XRT …

S&P 500 Retailing Sector ETF (XRT) – Weekly & Daily Charts

xrt_november-28-2016_week-daily_01

You can see that price pushed just above the obvious prior pivot high … we are either going to confirm that break over the next week or so, or we are going to get a Failure Confirmation and possibly the beginning to a Wave-C of the bigger corrective ABC pattern.

Seasonality is pointing us higher into year-end as part of an almost annual event the Santa Claus rally … waiting in the background is the non-farm payroll number this Friday and then the FOMC interest rate decision on December 14th.  I suspect no matter what happens with regards to these two events, the market will interpret as bullish and push the market higher.  Those hedge funds are just so far behind the passive index benchmarks it seems unlikely the market will let them off easy this last 5 weeks of the year.

Cheers … Leaf_West

Trying to Become a Better Trader (Add-On) …

Further to the post I wrote a couple of days ago, I completed one last PDF which goes over the more minor/less important of my chart indicators that I utilize on my day trading charts.  Those include my ATR trend direction warning levels, the higher time frame moving average, and the directional movement indicators.  Check it out if you have already read all of the other PDFs (click here).

All of my education PDFs can be found under the Education tab (click here).  

Cheers … Leaf_West

Trying to Become a Better Trader …

I had a trader reach out to me a couple of weeks ago who wanted to try and utilize my chart indicators to improve their trading results … I was happy to help her out, and in fact, I started a new series of educational PDFs to assist her further understand how I personally use these chart indicators.

These new PDFs along with all of my other educational materials can be found under the Education tab (click here).  Direct access to each of the latest three PDFs can be had by clicking on the hyperlinks below …

Moving Average Spread Indicator

Price Momentum & Squeeze Indicator

Trend Strength Histogram & Colored Candles

Cheers … Leaf_West

Volatility Update …

Things never looked so good … economic activity is about to accelerate as the Donald takes control of the Presidency and all of that trapped overseas money gets freed up to add to the mounting corporate share buyback orders as we enter 2017.  What could go wrong?  The FOMC raising rates? … Please … that will never happen, as the economy is giving too many mixed signals and the strong US$ won’t allow the Fed to raise rates into year-end.

Nope it is clear sailing here for the next little while and volatility is getting sucked out of the market at alarming rates …

S&P 500 Index Implied 30 Day Volatility – Daily Chart

vix_november-21-2016_daily_01

The VIX ended today at 12.17 so there is still some room for the holiday season to suck out the last 1.0-1.5 points out of this index.  The all important 30-day / 90-day VIX ratio is now back in the low warning zone, but as you can see from prior periods, that ratio can stay under the important 0.82x ratio for an extended period of time.  The ratio never can stay above the 1.00x ratio too long and the push higher due to the US Presidency was another example of that fact.

S&P 500 Index Implied 30 Day Volatility – 60 Minute Chart

vix_november-21-2016_60-min_01

The 60-min VIX chart is what I like to follow to keep my eye on when the VIX is changing direction … its not even close, so keep swinging SVXY long and buying the market dips!!

Merry Christmas and Happy Thanksgiving …

TSLA Update …

For the most part, I have tried to keep my hands off of my swing TSLA short trade that I initiated in August … I have on occasion sold weekly puts against my long put (see last update here), but I had in mind a price and time target for that swing position so I tried to let the trade work its way there.  We are now basically at both my first target as well as my timing target so I have to make some adjustments to my position in the next couple of weeks.

TSLA Weekly Chart (from August 29, 2016 blog posting)

TSLA_August 29, 2016_weekly_01

Continue reading